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I used to cite the appearance of egrets on the South Coast as evidence that Global Warming is happening. But Duncan Huggett of RSPB told me that they used to be common in Victorian times, but were shot to extinction to provide feathers for ladies hats! Only now are they re-establishing in this country.
Nevertheless there does seem to be a move in the climate, with warmer summers, and possibly longer periods of severe rain in the winter producing flooding. Current predictions seem to suggest a sea level rise of the order half a metre over the next 50 years, with extreme weather being more frequent – a one in 100 year event may become a once in a decade event. It is the increased frequency of extremes that we will notice most.
Government policy to date has concentrated on reducing global warming inputs, especially CO2. Kyoto was an attempt to lead the world in the direction of controlling, then reducing inputs. But the proposed reductions will only scratch the surface. Some estimates suggest that we need to be targeting a 60% reduction by the end of the century, a very tall order.
It is interesting that in his book “The Skeptical Environmentalist”, Bjorn Lomborg comes down firmly against massive and immediate CO2 reductions suggesting that a better path is to get the developing world through its inevitable ‘dirty’ phase as quickly as possible while technology fixes such as fuel cells, solar power (including wind, wave and tide) begin to bite as world population begins to stabilise. This is more in tune with the US approach. Lomborg’s argument is well reasoned, cogent and worthy of examination.
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