The Abuse of Science

How often science is used by conservation agencies and NGOs to ‘prove’ their case! But if the results are inconvenient, then it is argued that there is a risk that the scientific predictions will be wrong. Nowhere is this more evident than with regard to coastal zone science. Estuaries, for example, usually meander (on the Humber, for example ABP need to publish a new chart of the channels above the Humber Bridge every month because the estuary is so mobile). It is probable that the behaviour of estuaries is chaotic in the strict mathematical sense. If so, then deterministic prediction of an end state is impossible. All that can be achieved is a prediction of the range of possible outcomes, or perhaps a number of likely states that will be stable for relatively long periods.

This use of the Whitehall Loop has had a damaging effect, and may destroy belief that science can be used to aid decision making.

As Feynman has said, scientists have learned to live with uncertainty, and we must all learn to live with risk, even when the environment is at stake. We must use civil law standards of proof (balance of probabilities) rather than criminal standards (beyond reasonable doubt)